The dark era of NATO on the eve of its seventy-fifth birthday

– International News – Tasnim news agency, “Pasayr Noye Perse” newspaper in an article pointed out the dire situation of the NATO military alliance on the eve of its 75th anniversary and He wrote: NATO has overcome many crises since its establishment 75 years ago. But the question here is whether this coalition will survive the second round of Donald Trump’s possible presidency in the United States? Unpleasant issues arise for this military alliance in this founding anniversary.

However, NATO, bigger than ever and stronger than it has been in a long time, is trying to celebrate its 75th birthday in the best possible way. In a ceremony at the headquarters of this military alliance in Brussels on Thursday, this event will be celebrated that since the establishment of this defense alliance, neither Russia nor any other country has dared to attack a country. They have not had NATO. Behind the scene, however, there is a sad atmosphere in many places and fields. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s new proposals show how much concern there is about a possible shift in power in the United States, and the question arises whether, according to insiders, the most successful military alliance of all time should not be worried about its future.

Even if NATO’s top politicians don’t want to talk about it in public, hardly any other scenario these days worries NATO more than the possible return of former US President Donald Trump to the White House. The Republican presidential candidate recently made it clear during a campaign appearance that he would not support allies with low defense costs if Russia attacked. He warned in an interview: We must not forget that NATO is more important for Europe than the United States, because there is an ocean between the United States of America, “a beautiful, big, wonderful ocean” and “some problems” in Europe.

All this is problematic because NATO as a defense alliance relies on the principle of deterrence. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is related to this issue. This article regulates the requirement to help the alliance and states that an armed attack against one or more allies is considered as an attack against all. His very few defenses cannot count on US aid under his presidency goes against the principle of deterrence. This is especially critical for NATO because the United States is a nuclear superpower whose deterrence potential cannot be offset by other allies—and many European NATO countries have yet to meet the alliance’s common defense spending target.

The latest statements of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg show how seriously this issue is taken. The Norwegian official reacted sharply and unusually to Trump’s comments and said: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines our entire security, including the security of the United States.

Another One of the most terrifying scenarios in Europe is that Trump could end US support for Ukraine, which has been attacked by Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán recently said after meeting Republican Trump that he told him that if he returned to the presidency, he would not spend “one penny” on this war.

As a preemptive measure, Stoltenberg has already suggested in domestic circles that in the future a NATO mission should take over the coordination of arms deliveries to Ukraine’s armed forces, previously organized by the United States. He also wants to convince the coalition partners to promise military support worth 100 billion euros to Ukraine in the next five years before the US presidential elections.

Pasayr Noye Perse newspaper continued this article: Even if the scenario of Trump taking office does not materialize and Joe Biden remains the US president for another four years, the war in Ukraine could become a dangerous test for NATO. Tensions between the allies have increased recently as costs and conditions on this front have increased.

For example, on the one hand there are politicians such as German Chancellor Olaf Schultz who fear escalating tensions with Russia doesn’t want to supply Ukraine with certain weapons like Taurus cruise missiles — and on the other hand, there are heads of state like French President Emmanuel Macron who do it purely for deterrence reasons and don’t want to use ground forces. Reject in Ukraine. At the moment, it is not entirely clear how NATO will react if Russian forces again achieve greater success on this front and there is a risk of the fall of Kiev.

All this is somewhat reminiscent of NATO in the period The presidency of Donald Trump is from 2017 to 2021. At the time, Macron described the alliance as “brain dead” because of a lack of coordination between allies.

There is also a behind-the-scenes debate over how to deal with China. The United States is pressuring NATO to focus more on threats from this emerging superpower in the future. However, in countries such as France and Germany, there are concerns that Washington also wants to use the alliance for an economic power struggle with Beijing, and that conflicts could escalate.

After the NATO military alliance Established on April 4, 1949 in response to the threatening policies of the Communist Soviet Union, it was responsible for providing a deterrent to Eastern military power during the Cold War. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, NATO temporarily assumed the role of a kind of global policeman. The ISIS attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001, played a key role in the war against the Taliban and the terrorist organization al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. At that time, for the first time, Article 5 was activated for the United States, according to which an armed attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all members. The coalition then suffered perhaps the biggest setback in its history in 2021, when the withdrawal from Afghanistan ended with the Taliban retaking the country.

Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, less Someone else has talked about this, and NATO’s focus is once again clearly on deterrence and defense against Russia. Eastern allies especially fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin will consider attacking the Baltics, especially if his forces are successful in Ukraine and NATO is internally divided.

At NATO’s birthday party on Thursday, attended by the foreign ministers of the member states, it is likely that an attempt will be made to create a completely different impression. Together, they want to once again show solidarity and send deterrent messages to Putin. “All for one, one for all” is a sentence that will be sent to the world by the current 32 NATO countries.

The German “Handelsblatt” newspaper also wrote in an article: On the anniversary of the founding of NATO, military crises for this The coalition is stacked. The war in Gaza could turn into a larger war in the Middle East at any time, Ukraine is increasingly on the defensive against Russia, and China is arming itself in the Far East. to reinvent again in the coming years.

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