Which is Türkiye’s crisis: Syrian refugees or the economy?

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, these days in Turkey, No one talks about the economic consequences of the presence of four and a half million refugees, asylum seekers and migrants.

Until a few months ago, this issue was so important that millions of Turkish citizens They came to believe that the whole issue of inflation and economic crisis is due to the Syrian refugees and if they leave, all the economic problems will be solved.

At the same time, many commentators Economists said: “Incidentally, the cheap labor of Syrian workers on the one hand and the wealth and capital of rich Syrian companies transferred to Turkey, not only did not bring stagnation and poverty, but also created prosperity and capital”.

But it is as if several political parties had vowed to pour gasoline on the fire of nationalist emotions and populist thoughts in their election campaigns and find fault for Turkey’s economic situation.

Turkey, the exciting era He has made fiery speeches against refugees and asylum seekers. The opposition who promised to return the Syrians to their land with Dehl and Serena after coming to power did not come to power and the ruling party not only did not take a step to transition from the economic crisis, but the dollar from 20 lira during the election period, now has reached 29 lira.

Reviews show that the end of the election competition caused attention to the issue of refugees and its economic consequences to decrease, and now it has been announced that this country Inflation ranks fifth among 29 countries.

In other words, economic experts have realized that the economic crisis has become so widespread that no one talks about the problem of refugees anymore. Slow.

Households became more indebted

In a way, household debt has increased in Turkey and the analysis of the ratio of debt to Turkey’s GDP shows that household debt in the third quarter of the year Compared to the same period of the previous year, it has increased from 11.6% to 12.3%.

In the same period, the debt of non-financial companies increased from 60.1% to 53%, public debt from 37.1% to 33.8%. The percentage has decreased.

Optimar Institute survey also shows that 52% of Turkish citizens say: During 2023, my household income has decreased. 76% of the respondents also say: In 2023, my purchasing power has decreased.

Survey: The biggest problem What is Turkey? has limited questions, whose questions are not people, businesses and ordinary citizens, but economic experts, senior stock brokers and bank managers.

In the latest survey of this type that The order of the head of the Central Bank of Turkey, Mrs. Mamozita Ghaye, has been carried out, information and forecasts have come out that show a dark outlook for the economy of this western neighbor of Iran in the coming months.

The most important The conclusion of the Central Bank survey, which was conducted with the presence of more than 60 Turkish economic elites, is this: the incredible volume of the country’s economic problems and structural deficiencies are so high that it practically makes us forget the problem of immigrants.

In this survey, the economic elites were asked to announce their predictions and expectations about the future stages. Their answer is as follows:

1. Inflation expectations at the end of this year will be a figure equal to 67.23%.

2. Dollar to By the end of this year, it will reach 29 lira and 99 kuroush, but in the next 12 months, at the end of 2024, it will increase to at least 39 lira and 86 kuroush.

Based on the data The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the short-term foreign debt of banks increased by 3.3% to 64.2 billion dollars. Also, the short-term external debt of other sectors decreased by 1.3% to 53.4 billion dollars. According to the IPSOS report, which conducts economic research at the global level, Turkey ranks fifth among 29 countries in terms of consumer confidence index. While our score is 34.5, the average for all countries is 47.2. Also, in this group, we are the fifth country with the highest inflation. 73% of the surveyed people think that inflation will increase in the coming months. In addition, many people are also worried about the increase in unemployment. It is no secret that in the last five years, Turkey’s economic situation has gone very badly. Now we all know that the government created by the Justice and Development Party has not managed our economy properly. Many decisions and actions of Erdogan’s government not only did not solve the problem, but even had negative results. Therefore, it is not surprising that the results of every internal and external survey indicate pessimistic and worrying results and predictions. Even without conducting a survey, we can understand the consequences of society’s lack of trust in the economic conditions of the country”.

In the economic report of Ankara newspaper, some political and legal problems are mentioned which It has directly affected the economy and increased inflation.

This report states: “As soon as everyone feels that the era of occasional, emotional and wrong policies It has come to an end and the government is gradually moving towards rational economic decisions, suddenly a new thing happens that shocks and panics the market. Erdogan’s new move to attack the Constitutional Court is one of the events that destroys the stability and security of Turkey’s economy at once.” and winning this election, i.e. taking control of the municipalities, is of vital importance not only for Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party, but also for his opponents. Because the municipality is an important center for providing an example and a model of the parties’ managerial, political and social power. If there is no positive change in Turkey’s economy in the coming months, the ruling party will face difficult conditions for conquering the municipalities.

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